Beware of 2023 - India Edition
In the shadows of election of 2024, the break-India forces are likely to expand their operations. Expect riots, religious altercations, bad publicity from western media and more.
The 2024 election in India looms. It marks ten years of the Modi Government, and a decisive victory for Modi in 2024 will set back the break-India and pro-corruption forces like never before. Modi has severely limited corruption at the top level and within the central government bureaucracy. Modi has not been quite successful in weeding out corruption at all levels. But he has starved the para-democratic break-India and pro-corruption system of the regular money flow for ten years. It is barely surviving. Sadly, it means that these break-India and corruption forces will mount a major assault on democracy and the rule of law. So what can we expect?
Riots
We should expect a conspicuous effort to create Hindu-Muslim riots. While these used to be financed from Pakistan, that source has dried up recently. Yet, break-India forces have new and diversified financing sources - China and the pro-war West lobby. Modi Government must watch out for the Ukraine model being used to fan unrest.
We should expect Hindu-Sikh issues. The Khalistani terror groups have received a big boost from Canadian and UK-based financiers. They are likely to fan Hindu-Sikh problems using Punjab as a base. The pro-corruption AAP government in Punjab will provide the necessary cover for these activities.
I also expect the pro-reservation groups to fuel caste divisions. In the past, I would have expected Mayawati to be involved. I also would have expected some castist BJP workers to create friction. However, the presence of Yogi in UP has ensured that law and order take precedence over any mala fide actions from any source.
The Chinese-sponsored terror outfits in North East and Maoist groups in central India may create potential flashpoints. These are known threats, and I hope governmental agencies are alert to them.
Border clashes
There is a chance of malicious activity on the China and Pakistan border. However, any sensitive development on these two borders creates an advantage for the Modi government, so the chances are less.
The border problems may stem along Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh or other smaller borders. We may expect some issues with the Rohingya to come to the fore.
Creating policy subversion
The opposition has yet to create a substantial case for policy failure. Yet, they will surely try. The walk-back on farms laws may be an issue. The recent debate about the side effects of vaccines has increased the chances that this may be another issue to attack Modi Government. Other make-in-India products or services may also be targeted as being failures.
I expect the anti-India elements is such that attack or sabotage the newly built infrastructure. It could be an attack on new trains, Metro stations, accidents in bridges and landmark projects etc. A potential threat is sabotage of the Ram Mandir or friction related to the Kashi Vishwanath temple.
I fully expect opposition parties to dare Modi to ramp up rhetoric against China, Pakistan and even allies like US, Russia or Israel. Modi will be criticised either way.
But the main attack will come on the economic front. Indian GDP is expected to ease up in the calendar year 2023. It will rebound in 2024, but till then, there will be enough fodder for the likes of Chidambaram and Raghuram Rajan to chirp at Modi. Expect some verbal skirmish between them and Nirmala Sitharaman. Allegations may be made that India is not growing at 10% because of the incompetence of the Modi Government.
State divisions
There is some alignment forming between the non-BJP ruled states to come together to create a coalition that can force the BJP numbers lower. At the very least, these parties will seek to protect their vote share in these states. To facilitate that, these parties will try to put the states in opposition to the pan-India narrative.
The parties in these states have amplified their rent-seeking as much as they can while flying under the radar of the national anti-corruption agencies and courts. This kitty will finance the narrative, opinion and outrage playbook in these States.
West Bengal, Kerala, Telangana and Punjab are the hotspots. We need to watch out closely. BJP rules states need to focus on law and order.
Co-opted Media outrage
Whatever the problems that may arise, we will have the co-opted media go all out against the Modi Government. Their strategy will comprise four different legs.
First is hashed opinion polls that declare that the Modi government has lost public support. Look out for many opinion polls trashing Modi. These polls will be quoted everywhere in the world. Western media may try to draw parallels between Modi-Trump, Modi-Putin or all three.
The second leg is misinformation on some cooked-up scandal. They will try to access some idiotic BJP personnel to make scandalous remarks. I expect some party personnel to be led on to spout some idiotic bullshit such as “women should be relegated to the kitchen”, OR “Hitler was smart”, OR “all Bollywood actors are addicts” etc.
I believe the investigation process of the Delhi riots will be used to create a news cycle. Expect some corrupt reporter facing legal prosecution for sexual harassment or some other crime to be the face of press persecution allegations against Modi. BBC, FT, Economist, NYT and WSJ will gleefully repeat these.
Election veracity
Finally, Modi cannot simply win the election in 2024. He needs to win the election by an indisputable margin. If there is scope to call into question a few percentage points of votes, there will be conspiracy theories being floated around by the break-India forces. Thanks to robust electronic voting machines and a proper custodial chain, election veracity is no longer a challenge in India. Yet, we must remain vigilant to the idea of dislocations and distortions calling into question the election outcome. After all, there was no merit in CAA or Farm law protests either.
In Sum
The election year brings to the fore the animalistic tendencies of politics. The issues raised are meaningless, but the scars they leave will last forever. Let us pray that we are smart enough to see through these coordinated tactics of break-India and pro-corruption lobby.
BTW what are the chances that Arvind Kejriwal will be slapped at a rally between now and May 2024? I am not betting on that. I am betting on how many times!
What you are dealing with in India, is what we face here. I call it The Spectacle of the Real. It is the hub of a culture of simulation. The public is presented with a narrative that the average citizen has no way of verifying. The story is presented with the intent to generate anger, fear, and a sense of righteousness. The simulation manipulates public opinion to insure that people do not think for themselves. Instead they parrot the dominant narrative. The antidote is to believe nothing except that which you know by direct experience. Everything else, even that which fits with one’s values, keep at arms length in order to see it more objectively. Ask questions. Be hard to convince. Think fir yourself. All sides are using this approach to gain and secure power. Which means they recognize that the people have a power that they cannot produce. I produced a series of posts on this last year at https://edbrenegar.substack.com/p/the-culture-of-simulation-series.